The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its third estimate of second quarter GDP tomorrow.
“So is it consumers — you’ve got consumer spending,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “Is it businesses doing investments — so, that’s investment spending.”
GDP also includes government spending and net exports. But Kelly said the first part of that list — consumer spending — has been resilient lately, partly because of the bigger tax refunds people got this year.
Then, there’s investment spending. Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said businesses have been investing a lot in inventories.
“When you look at a lot of the survey data, businesses are saying that their inventories are quite low, which means they need to re-stock,” Yaros said.
He also said there has been plenty of investment in AI — spending on data centers and all the equipment that goes into them. But he said a lot of that spending is boosting GDP more — in Taiwan, Korea, and other countries that make that equipment.
“I think we have to be careful not to overstate the benefits to growth and the economy,” Yaros said, “because a lot of the AI spending by businesses is imported from abroad.” |