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How much has war in the Middle East hurt the U.S. economy? We’ll get closer to the answer tomorrow, when the government puts out revised GDP numbers and new inflation data.
 
We’ll tell you what to expect in today’s newsletter, and take the temperature of the climate crisis. Finally, what do you get the man who has everything? A caged mixed martial arts fight, apparently.

First though: tungsten. Its unique properties make it valuable across the economy, and Marketplace’s Justin Ho explains why the metal has quadrupled in price. — Carrie Barber, newsletter editor
A miner holds chunks of tungsten in the palm of his hand.
Morne de Klerk/Getty Images
Skyrocketing tungsten prices bruise U.S. manufacturers
All kinds of industries use the element to cut other metals. China controls about 80% of the world’s supply.
Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have hit the tungsten market hard.

The price of the metal has shot up 300% over the past year or so, according to the CRU Group. That inflation has less to do with tariffs than it does with another weapon in the global trade war: export controls.

A big reason tungsten is unique is that it has a very high resistance to heat.

“And so that makes it ideal for handling the temperatures required to melt other metals without it melting itself,” said Chris Blench, CEO of Mavericks Manufacturing Partners, a company near San Diego that makes components for the energy and defense sectors.

Blench said tungsten is commonly used as the electrode when welding parts for those sectors.

“All of our aircraft, missile systems, the nuclear power plants for submarines and aircraft carriers, they’ll use a lot of this particular kind of a process, using tungsten,” Blench said.

About once a month, Mavericks Manufacturing Partners orders a 10-pack of tungsten electrodes, which are the thin rods that go into welding tools. But last fall, the company noticed that prices were starting to rise. Joe Thompson, the company’s chief operating officer, loaded up on a year’s supply.

“At that time, it wasn’t really a huge cost,” Thompson said. “But we can stock it.”

Thompson said that ended up being the right call. Prices of those 10-packs have more than tripled in the time since.

That’s partly because there’s a lot of demand from the defense sector. Tungsten is also used to make torpedoes and armor-piercing ammunition.

Nicola Sanesi, senior analyst with CRU Group, said demand is up partly because of the Iran war, and because Europe is spending more on defense.

“If we look at the particular example of Germany, we see that Germany is reconverting part of their manufacturing operations into military projects,” Sanesi said.

But the reason why prices have skyrocketed this year also has to do with supply, since China controls so much of the market.

“China has implemented export restrictions, meaning that only those who get a license can actually sell tungsten overseas,” Sanesi said.

China’s trying to hang on to its tungsten, along with other critical metals, to safeguard its own interests, said Leah Fahy, senior China economist with Capital Economics.

“But equally, the other key thing is that it’s been used as a bargaining tool, and a way of causing pain to the U.S. and the U.S.’s allies,” Fahy said.
READ MORE


 
News you should know
Let’s do the numbers
  • Stock markets edged up to new highs today after the ceasefire with Iran held. The S&P 500 inched up by less than 0.1%, the Dow climbed 0.4% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%, all reaching fresh records.

  • Consumers expect prices to rise 4.8% over the next year, the University of Michigan reported last week. Businesses and bond markets are signaling similar fears. That’s important because inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling prophecies.

  • The government pegged gross domestic product for the first quarter at 2%, and revised figures are due tomorrow. Will oil and gas exports raise GDP, or will slowing consumer spending pull it down?

  • A barrel of Brent crude oil fell to $92.25 today, and a gallon of regular gas averaged $4.45.

Sustainibility
  • Can we dim the sun and cool the planet by releasing sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere? The team from “How We Survive,” our podcast about climate solutions, went to Northern California to investigate the controversial theory.
  • The Colorado River system is so depleted from drought, another mild winter could mean “draconian” cutbacks. Nearly three-quarters of the water goes to irrigation, and farmers will be responsible for the bulk of the reductions, a researcher said. 

  • The climate crisis is making antibiotic resistance worse across the world, a study in Lancet Planetary Health found. Researchers using salmonella samples from 139 countries said resistance increases as temperatures rise.

Your money
  • Smaller stores are puzzling over how to implement new rules around food benefit programs. If it becomes too burdensome, some stores may drop out of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program altogether.
  • Just 37% of consumers under 40 feel financially secure enough to cover everyday expenses, according to JD Power. What’s more, 68% of people under 40 have asked artificial intelligence for financial advice, compared to 42% in the over 40 group.

  • Just in time for the November midterm elections, grocery prices are expected to rise. Again. An El Niño weather pattern predicted this summer could dump extra rain on California, which grows about half the country’s fruits and vegetables.


QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We saw olive harvests getting damaged in Spain, we saw chickens getting really hot in the heat, and chicken production taking a hit in the U.K.”
— Emma Court, Bloomberg reporter
Climate change and economics crashed into each other in the summer of 2022. The deadly heatwave that blanketed Europe raised food prices there by 0.7% and overall inflation by 0.3%. It wasn’t just olives and chickens taking a hit; train tracks warped and roads melted, making transportation more expensive. Energy costs rose as air conditioners worked overtime. It’s a big concern for central banks around the world, whose job is to keep prices steady, Court told us. So central banks have been working with scientists and economists to study “climateflation.” It’s a messy business, Court said.
HEAR MORE
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Dome-like scaffolding and giant cranes in front of the White House.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Final note
What a way to celebrate
Remember last year when President Donald Trump said an Ultimate Fighting Championship event on the White House lawn would be a great way to celebrate the country’s 250th birthday? And we couldn’t tell if he was serious?

Now we have the visual proof: Crews erecting a temporary octagon just steps away from the South Portico. The mixed martial arts match on June 14 will also commemorate the president's 80th birthday and Flag Day. Trump supporter Dana White, UFC CEO, is picking up the tab. 

By the way, you’re invited! The president says the lawn will hold up to 100,000 people (we’ll see what the Secret Service says about that).

No gifts, please.
 
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