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Good evening. Sorry to tell you that we once again have to talk about prices going up. 

Specifically, today’s newsletter will look at oil, groceries and single-family homes. Each has its own market forces at work, even if the result for you is kind of the same. To kick us off, Marketplace’s Justin Ho examines the ripple effects of crude oil supply shock on American refineries. — Carrie Barber and Tony Wagner, newsletter editors
An oil refinery in Los Angeles, displaying a large American flag
David McNew/Getty Images
Without Middle East crude, some refineries have to shut down
Even if the war were to end soon, and oil started flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again, it could take a while for these refineries to come back online.
President Donald Trump’s war in the Middle East is restricting the supply of crude oil to the rest of the world.
 
Iran’s new leader said Thursday that the country will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. Oil prices jumped in response. Brent crude, which is basically the type of oil that's no longer flowing out of the Mideast, flirted with $100 a barrel. 
 
Even with more than 170 million barrels of oil being released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, some of the refineries that convert crude oil into consumable energy just don’t have access to the raw material they need. The war could end up causing many refineries to shut down production.
 
The kind of oil that’s getting cut off by this conflict mostly goes to Asia.
 
“A lot of that crude goes to China, Malaysia, Singapore. India is very important also,” said Anna Mikulska, head of analytics at CGCN Group.
 
She said some Middle Eastern crude also heads to refineries in California.
 
“California has imported a lot of its crude from Iraq, for example. This is a lot of barrels that California will have a problem replacing,” Mikulska said.
 
Refineries there can’t just switch to the heavier, sulfur-rich oil that comes from western Canada, because they aren’t set up to handle it.
 
“You have to build the infrastructure, you need the de-sulfurization infrastructure, and that takes a long time, and more importantly, it takes a lot of capital investment,” said Hugh Daigle, a professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Texas at Austin.
 
He said even though the U.S. produces a lot of its own oil around the Gulf of Mexico, California isn’t connected to that supply.
 
“The easiest way to move crude around, domestically, is pipelines. There’s not a lot of pipeline infrastructure to get from Texas to California, believe it or not,” Daigle said.
 
There’s none, in fact.
READ MORE


 
News you should know
Let’s do the numbers
  • The war in Iran sent oil prices back up, and U.S. stocks back down. The Dow closed off 1.6%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, and the Nasdaq composite sank 1.8%.

  • Single-family home building fell 2.8% from December to January, the Census Bureau reported today. New homes aren’t just expensive for buyers; builders are feeling the pressure of high prices too. 

  • One more thing on oil: The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to 415 million barrels, a 30-year low.
Food
  • Restaurant chains grew by 3% last year, while small restaurants declined by more than 2%, according to a recent analysis. In Nashville, skyrocketing rent and competition from chains mean the city is losing some of its regional flavor and personality as cozier cafes close.

  • A recent study from Consumer Reports tracked the most- and least-expensive grocery stores in several key markets nationwide. See who’s up and who’s down, and make sure you’re subscribed to the main Marketplace newsletter, where we’ll visit a very big, very new grocery store in Texas.  


QUOTE OF THE DAY
“It's just a temporary Band-Aid that can actually end up doing a lot more harm than good.”
— David Ortega, professor and Noel W. Stuckman Chair in food economics and policy at Michigan State University
Americans are weary of price shocks at the grocery store, an issue that will surely be top of mind when they vote in the midterm elections later this year. So how do you make food more affordable? The Center for American Progress proposed price caps, but Ortega and other economists say in reality, price controls can lead to shortages, misallocated resources and other unitended consequences.
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Final note
Have you been watching the Paralympics?
Get on it; they wrap up tomorrow.
 
It’s expensive for these world-class athletes to get to Milan Cortina — not just their travel but years of training and gear and nutrition before they even qualify. A 2024 report found the average Olympian or Paralympian’s annual net spend is $12,000 a year, and for winter sports the costs tend to be even higher.

 “Make Me Smart” host Kimberly Adams hit the slopes in Vermont to learn all about it. When are we going to get to send a newsletter from Vermont?
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