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Hello from sunny Chicago, where everyone who’s able is spending some time on Lake Michigan’s shores — including basking on the city’s controversial concrete beaches. With gas prices still pretty high — Cook County is averaging more than $4.50 a gallon — it’s staycation summer.

While most Americans keep an eye on the cost to fill up their own tank, they might not pay attention to that other number on the gas station sign: the cost of diesel. We’re in a global deficit of the fuel that powers trucks, trains, and farm equipment, and it’s gonna raise prices down the line.

Today though, we’ll get started with an inflation measure that doesn’t include volatile prices like diesel. In fact, this one only measures the costs that will stick around for a while.

— Jordan Mangi, digital producer

A man rushes by an apartment building with a

Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The Fed doesn't have an inflation crystal ball, but it does have "sticky-price CPI"

The index predicts where inflation will be two years or more down the line. But is it accurate?

More inflation data came out Thursday, but the numbers are from June — a time when there was a fragile truce between the U.S. and Iran, and oil and gasoline prices were trending lower.

The personal consumption expenditures price index (that’s the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation) was 3.7% year-over-year, down from 4.1% in May.

But, there is yet another inflation measure that’s more of a prediction about the future: the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s sticky-price consumer price index. The latest reading there was 2.8%.

The Atlanta Fed said sticky-price CPI is supposed to predict what inflation will be way down the line — in two years or longer. In that context, 2.8% is not exactly good news.

News you should know

Let’s do the numbers

Microsoft had its best day since 2008 , jumping 15.5% after reporting stronger-than-expected profits. The S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all ticked up, after taking a tumble Wednesday.

The PCE (that’s the Fed’s preferred inflation yardstick) measured 3.7% year-over-year in June. It’s down from May’s 4.1%, but still higher than that 2% inflation target.

Diesel is averaging $5.34 a gallon, less than 50 cents shy of AAA’s all-time high. We can’t just blame the Iran war.

Pop culture round-up

Social media algorithms are making it more difficult to rise above the din of matching sets and matcha lattes. Lifestyle influencers are pivoting to rage bait.
Adults are driving toy sales growth, as low-tech escapes from parasitic salad and AI slop increasingly take the form of collectible knick-knacks.
European nations say they’ll boycott the World Cup if global governing body FIFA sells stakes to private investors. That means the reigning champion, Spain, will miss the upcoming 2027 Women’s World Cup in Brazil — a tournament Team USA actually has a chance of winning.

Your money

The rising cost of groceries is one reason consumer sentiment has been so lousy. So why have some people doubled down on buying pricier organic options?

Speaking of health trends, some employers are trimming GLP-1s from health insurance coverage. Cigna expects the slowdown to continue through 2026.

Behind on bills, and thinking of selling grandma’s heirloom jewelry? You might get less than you’d expect. The value of mined diamonds has tumbled 40% over the last decade, according to one measure.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“I think it's great for Black people to see a Black man teaching white people how to do country line dance. And I also think it's great for Black people to see a Black man teaching Black people how to do country line-dancing.”

— Justin Lee Williams, a Tennessee-based line dancing instructor

If you’re like me, your social media doomscroll has lately included some country western flair: Cowboy boots, the new Kacey Musgraves album, and maybe even a two-step. All that to say, line dancing is in.

Justin Lee Williams was working at a Nashville-area Boot Barn when a customer asked if he’d ever considered becoming a line dance instructor. The rest is boot scootin’ history.

At a time when the job market can feel bleak, WPLN’s Blake Farmer reported a delightful feature on Williams: His newfound career, musings on how race and Southern culture collide in his work, and the realities of social media fame.

HEAR MORE

A computer screen shows a mouse clicking a button that says

Getty Images

Final note

Begone, LinkedIn slop!

Scroll through Linkedin any time in the last couple years, and you’ve likely noticed it: a deluge of similar viral posts, a workplace anecdote that sounds too good to be true, and an endless list of takeaways punctuated with cutesy emojis.

Well now, you can take action. The platform just launched a feature that allows people to report suspected AI-generated content — the button literally says “seems like AI slop.”

Flagging slop might provide relief to some AI-fatigued networkers, but it does raise questions about who is best equipped to identify bot-generated content. Not to mention all those messy ways AI has turned job applications and hiring practices upside down in this tricky labor market.

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