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How does the market price in existential risk?

U.S. artificial intelligence leaders called for a coordinated slowdown in research this weekend, and AI stocks fell today because of it.

The concern is that rapidly advancing models could go rogue and kill everyone, but it’s a classic collective action problem: Even if U.S. labs pull back development, who’s to say foreign tech companies will do the same? President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart both dismissed apocalyptic concerns today.

My feeling, seemingly shared by some on Wall Street, is that the horse has already left the barn — and lent itself a trillion dollars on the way out. Who can afford to stop now? We’ll have more on the market reaction below, but first a more immediate concern: The ever-higher cost of diesel and everything else. — Tony Wagner, newsletter editor  
A Florida gas station advertises Diesel at $6.57 a gallon.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Diesel is at a record high. It’s harder to cut back on than gas.
War in the Middle East is driving diesel above $6 a gallon. Those costs will quickly raise prices on other goods, analysts told Marketplace’s Elizabeth Trovall.
Once gas prices hit a certain high number, consumers respond.

“We can consolidate our trips to the grocery. We can carpool. We can purchase more economical vehicles,” said Ed Hirs, an energy economist at University of Houston.

But diesel is different. “With diesel, there's less flexibility on the demand side to respond to higher prices, and so … typically the higher price of diesel is passed along to the consumer very quickly,” Hirs said.

Crops still need to be harvested and widgets still need to be shipped. Mid-September is the start of the fall agricultural season, when commodities like corn and soybeans need to be harvested and transported around the globe.

“Seventy percent of that diesel is consumed in transportation, and there really aren't any significant scalable substitutes outside of rail, which has its limitations,” said Will O’Neil, energy analyst at S&P Global Energy.

He said even in other segments, like agriculture and heating oil, “it's difficult to get a snap ability to shift those to non-diesel consumption.”

The reality is, diesel doesn’t have great alternatives, and we'll all be paying for it.

“You'll be paying in everything: bananas, oranges, strawberries,” said Susan Bell at Rystad Energy.
READ MORE


 
News you should know
Let’s do the numbers
  • Rising share prices in other industries helped keep AI fears from totally tanking stocks today. The S&P 500 closed 0.5% lower, the Dow lost 0.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.6%.

  • The yield on the 10-year T-note broke 5% today before settling just under. We kicked off today’s “Marketplace” talking about what that means. Listen now.

  • The U.S. dollar has grown stronger in recent days, a sign investors expect inflation rates to rise.
The Trump administration
  • The Federal Reserve meets this week to set interest rate policy, and it’s not the only central bank looking hawkish right now.

  • The president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., had his intimate wedding underwritten by a Russian oligarch, ProPublica found. Umar Kremlev, a boxing exec with ties to Vladimir Putin, has sought favor with the White House in the past.

  • The EPA is rolling back limits on power plant carbon emissions.

  • The Kennedy Center is at risk of collapse if it doesn’t name itself after President Trump and thus secure needed funding, officials told the board last week.
Your money
  • The number of low-interest mortgages out there is dropping, and investors are bracing for turbulence as homeowners pay down their pricier mortgages quickly, or refinance if rates drop.

  • By the way, high diesel prices have already cost U.S. households more than $365 each since war in Iran started, per Brown University.


Skip Franklin taking a selfie.
Courtesy Franklin
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I live in a small place. I don't have fancy cars. I'm not married. I don't have kids. I live on probably around $20,000 a year.”
— Skip Franklin, who retired 12 years ago at 37
About 4 in 10 Americans retire earlier than they expected, according to a new survey from Allianz. Only 21% of those retirees did so because they found they could afford to, like Franklin. 

We talked with a bunch of people who have left the labor force, often involuntarily, for all kinds of reasons. You can read about some of them in last Friday’s Marketplace newsletter.
HEAR MORE FROM FRANKLIN
A photo illustration showing a ChatGPT user asking the bot
Leon Neal/Getty Images
Final note
One more thing on AI safety
OpenAI is showing real ChatGPT prompts to human contractors for quality control, 404 Media reported today. The publication talked with one of these reviewers and viewed real chat conversations on their dashboard. The prompts are anonymized… by another AI model, but may contain personal information. As “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal is fond of saying, what could possibly go wrong?
Take the Marketplace news quiz!
Listen to “Marketplace,” test your knowledge, brag to your friends.
LET'S GO
 
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