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The economy added 156,000 jobs in the past 12 months. Over the year before that, it added more than a million. “For some time, it’s been clear the market has weakened,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM.
“We had some job losses in February, we had job gains in January, some losses in December, and [they] seem to kind of offset each other,” Cooper said.
But the labor pool is shrinking, she added, with the Trump administration cutting immigration and baby boomers retiring. Slower job growth might not be such a big problem — except for the sharp uptick in
long-term unemployment. Workers who still have a job are starting to fall behind financially.
“Given the stagnancy we’ve seen across many sectors in the labor market, it’s not surprising to me we’ve seen wage growth decline,” said Laura Ullrich, director of economic research at jobs website Indeed.
The wages employers are posting on Indeed are up just 2.1% from this time last year. Consumer prices
are up 2.4%. And that brings things back to the “dual mandate.” Brusuelas said the Fed can’t attack both ends of it at the same time.
“Given the oil and energy shock which is shaping up to be the largest since the 1970s, the Federal Reserve is going to find itself in a tension between price stability and maximum sustainable employment,” he said.
Control over inflation will be the first order of business for the Fed, Brusuelas said, before it does anything to stimulate the labor market, however much it might be struggling. “Price stability is a precondition of maximum sustainable employment,” he said. That’s because
without price stability,
employers won’t feel confident enough in the economy going forward or have the financial resources to ramp up hiring again. |