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I thought this might be a slow news week, with the upcoming holiday and all, but I should have known better. In today’s newsletter we have a bunch of new economic data and updates out of Washington, including an emerging frontrunner to lead the Fed and a surprising bit of Hollywood dealmaking.

First though, let’s check in on the Affordable Care Act. The White House is reportedly working to address expiring subsidies, but enrollees should expect to pay more regardless. — Tony Wagner, newsletter editor

An empty exam table in a doctor's office.
Jeff Pachoud/AFP via Getty Images
ACA premiums are going up — even for those without subsidies
One reason? Younger, healthier people may drop coverage if it’s too pricey. Marketplace’s Samantha Fields reports.

This year, Kelly Williams and her husband have been paying about $2,000 a month, without subsidies, for health insurance through the marketplace for them and their two kids.

Next year, that same bronze plan will cost them about $3,300 a month, or $40,000 for the year.

“So, I'm a little bit paralyzed because, obviously, I really don't want to spend $40,000 on health insurance, but I also don't want to choose a bad plan or choose the wrong plan,” Williams said.

Any day, the White House is expected to release an announcement detailing how it plans to deal with high health care costs and expiring government subsidies for insurance. Without those subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of this year, many people who buy Affordable Care Act medical plans would see their premiums double, triple, or quadruple come January.

But even people who haven't historically relied on tax credits for health insurance are seeing their premiums for ACA coverage go up next year — about 26%, on average.

Williams is one of those consumers who’s seeing eye-popping increases to her premiums. She and her husband own a commercial printing business in rural Oklahoma, and their kids are in college. They don’t go to the doctor much or take many prescriptions, but she said that going without insurance doesn’t feel like an option.

“With kids, you worry most about accidents, and you're like, ‘What if somebody's in a horrible car wreck, and you have just a half-million-dollar hospital bill or something?’” Williams said.

She knew going into open enrollment this year that her family’s premium would probably be going up. “Once the news came that there were going to be the cuts to Medicaid and the cuts to the subsidies, I knew that you could not take that much money out of the health care market and not have it affect everybody.”

She’s right. That’s one of the main reasons premiums are going up, according to Sabrina Corlette, co-director of Georgetown’s Center on Health Insurance Reforms. If the enhanced subsidies do expire, lots of young, healthy people are likely to drop coverage because it’s too expensive.

“And when insurance companies anticipate a smaller, sicker pool of people that they're going to have to cover, they will increase their premiums,” Corlette said.

The average increase for marketplace plans for next year is about 26%. That’s big, said Matthew Fiedler, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution — especially after several years of premiums being relatively stable.

“Enhanced subsidies took effect in 2021. The market's grown a lot , and a lot of the people who came into the market were pretty healthy. So that provided a source of downward pressure on premium growth,” he said. “Now, we're seeing that process go into reverse.”
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News you should know

Let’s do the numbers

  • Stocks rose as traders got excited about a December interest rate cut all over again. The S&P 500 closed up 0.9%, the Dow rallied 1.4% and the Nasdaq composite added 0.7%.

  • September retail sales were delayed by the shutdown. The numbers, released today, did not impress ahead of the all-important holiday shopping season.

  • Wholesale prices ticked up 0.3% over the past month, but beat economist expectations when you strip out food and energy.

  • Certain companies are considered economic bellwethers. John Deere is one of them, and it always reports the day before Thanksgiving. We talked with one analyst who listens in the car with his kids.

The Trump administration

  • The government is still taking stakes in private companies, but it’s unclear if the American people will benefit. Here’s a good rundown of the numbers, including President Donald Trump’s personal share.

  • The Wall Street Journal analyzed thousands of earnings calls to take corporate America’s temperature on tariffs. Here’s a paywall-free link to that story.

  • White House head economist Kevin Hassett is reportedly the frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair. The President could announce his pick by Christmas. Revisit our 2017 interview with Hassett, in which he defended Trump’s corporate tax cuts.
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QUOTE OF THE DAY
"It seemed like we were asking people to do more work for things that they should be getting ordinarily anyway."
—  Nashville Mayor Freddie O’Connell

Americans don’t often have a direct say in how their tax dollars get spent. Some places have engaged in “participatory budgeting,” wherein residents propose taxpayer-funded improvements like speed bumps, or musical instruments for a library, and then vote for which projects win public funding.

And while it sounds like democracy in action, the approach hasn’t always stuck. Case in point: Nashville. Tennessee’s capital city tried participatory budgeting a few years ago, but quickly abandoned the program due to lack of interest. Experts say the city went about it with the wrong outlook.
Chris Tucker and Jackie Chan lay on a bunch of money in a still from the 1998 film
New Line Cinema
Final note
Trump to Hollywood: Do you understand the words that are coming out of my mouth?

President Trump has reportedly encouraged Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison to revive “Rush Hour,” the buddy-cop series starring Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker that last hit theaters in 2007.

Some important context here: The “Rush Hour” films were directed by Brett Ratner, whose latest film is a documentary about First Lady Melania Trump, and produced by a Warner Bros. subsidiary. Paramount has been trying to buy what is today called Warner Bros. Discovery, and the Trump administration would have to approve that merger. The White House appears likely to approve of a Paramount bid over others because Ellison’s father, Larry Ellison, is a billionaire MAGA supporter.

Warner Bros. has been shopping “Rush Hour 4” around Hollywood for a while, but two days after Semafor reported on Trump’s enthusiasm for the series, Paramount announced it would release the film.
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