Hello: While President Donald Trump’s war in Iran is escalating, his trade war with the rest of the world is too.

The White House is poised to announce new tariffs to replace temporary tariffs expiring Friday, which in turn replaced the tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. They’re also separate from the massive new tariffs announced on Canadian goods.

All this has potential to be quite inflationary, to say nothing of rising oil prices. We’ll do the numbers below, but first “Marketplace” correspondent Sabri Ben-Achour explains a number you might have missed today.  — Tony Wagner, newsletter editor

Has this ever happened to you?

One time, my gym asked me  “Hey, would you like to prepay your membership for two years in advance?” They offered me a discount, and I said “Better be one heck of a discount, ‘cause what if you shut down?”

So I didn’t do it. Lo and behold, the gym went bankrupt a year later.

Thirty-year Treasury bonds are kind of like my shady old gym. Not the shadiness or the bankruptcy, but the fact they ask you to lock up your money for a long time.

“You tie yourself up for 30 years, you’re locked in,” explained Stephen Laipply, global co-head of Bond ETFs at Blackrock. “And so you’re going to potentially demand a premium to take that risk.”

A few weeks ago, the yield on the 30-year T-note hit 5%, which it has done only a few times in the last decade. This time, though, it’s stayed above 5% — for about two weeks so far.

It’s the longest stretch over 5% the 30 year bond has had since 2007. What’s the bond market trying to tell us?

So much can go wrong in 30 years, and investors want to get paid more for that risk. Recently, they want to get paid extra more.

“Yields have been rising and that’s a signal that markets are becoming uncomfortable,” said Ian Shepherdson, chairman of Pantheon Macroeconomics. “First is the intractability of the huge budget deficit that the U.S. has been running for some time.”

Government debt hit 100% of GDP in March. People are starting to wonder if they’ll get paid back in 30 years.

“There’s no plausible, credible plan to reduce that anytime soon,” Shepherdson said.

Then there’s the AI of it all.

About 1 in 10 U.S. community hospitals are owned by private equity, but takeovers don't guarantee profits. After years of different strategies, hospital closures and bankruptcy, PE-backed Quorum Health is turning its 11 remaining hospitals back to non-profits. 

Lawmakers can’t stop talking about Olive Garden. Republicans have repeatedly invoked the casual dining chain in their push for a big voter ID bill. Why? Olive Garden’s Never-Ending Pasta Pass gets you 13 weeks of unlimited food for $100, but you need a photo ID to use it.

“We are protecting our breadsticks more than our ballots,” GOP Representative Bryan Steil of Wisconsin said in a recent committee meeting. Just to be clear, that’s not true. Voting is a constitutionally protected act, whereas eating pasta is not. 

Many states already require ID to vote, The New York TImes (gift link) points out, but the SAVE America Act demands proof of citizenship. In most states that would mean showing up to the ballot box with a birth certificate or passport. At Olive Garden there’s no need for all that; “when you’re here, you’re family.”