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Plus: The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is over. What’s that mean for prices? 
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Oil touched $80 today after President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was “over.” That’s all but certain to raise oil prices further, right as new survey data shows consumers expected gas prices to drop. 

We’ll do the numbers below, but you likely already know the cost of gas ripples to the cost of everything. Inflation-stung consumers are already hunting for back-to-school deals, and retailers are stocking up for Christmas in July. — Tony Wagner, newsletter editor
Two men look at a sunset over a field
Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
Some business owners are stocking up early for the holidays
Economic uncertainty is causing companies to order and import goods earlier than usual, Marketplace’s Kristin Schwab reports.
One of the foods trending on social media right now is dot cakes — single serving desserts in cups, covered with rainbow sprinkles. CB Stuffer, a chocolate treats company in Massachusetts, can’t make enough dot cake peanut butter cups to keep up.

“Our nonpareils are suddenly very popular,” said owner Erin Calvo-Bacci. “We have seen a 40% spike, which is insane.”

A trend Calvo-Bacci is less excited about is inflation. She’s seen it in key ingredients, like peanuts. “We’ve received word that that price is going to increase,” she said, along with the boxes the business ships candy in.

Price increases and tariff uncertainty are causing some business owners to order and import goods earlier than usual to prepare for the holidays. Containerized freight rates have reached their highest prices in nearly two years, reflecting demand. Wholesale inventory numbers for May were up 0.1% from the month before.

Calvo-Bacci now has enough containers to get her through the end of the year. It means she’s dedicating a lot of warehouse space and cash to packaging.
“It’s become okay, fine, what additional cost am I facing today?” Calvo-Bacci said.

Greg Shugar owns menswear accessory shop Beau Ties in Vermont. He said he has enough fabric to get him past the holidays and even into 2027.

“I was really just afraid of another erratic, unexpected tariff coming, so I stocked up,” he said.

It means leaning into more standard designs, like the classic black tie.
“We try to make it a little interesting, adding either different fabrics like a grenadine silk or velvet,” said Shugar. “But men's neckwear trends fortunately don’t change too drastically, too quickly.”
READ MORE


 
News you should know
Let’s do the numbers
  • Stocks convulsed at the news out of Iran but ended the day mixed. The S&P 500 closed down 0.3%, the Dow lost 1.1% and the Nasdaq added 0.2%.

  • Earnings season really kicks off tomorrow, and companies have been on a tear issuing new stock. Experts say it’s because these businesses are running on five-to-10-year timelines.

  • Consumers expect inflation to run at about 3.7% over the next year, according to a new Federal Reserve survey.

  • The International Monetary Fund pegged worldwide inflation at 4.7% for the year, and cut its growth forecast to 3%.

Energy
  • Brent crude oil rose 5.2% today, to $78.02 a barrel. The national average gas price rose to nearly $3.80 a gallon today, but as we said on today’s show, brace for more.

  • U.S. power consumption hit a record high last year — a record it’s expected to break this year and next year. For the first time, businesses are using more power than homes.
Government
  • The first minutes released under Chair Kevin Warsh showed Fed officials were divided on hiking interest rates by the end of the year to keep prices in check.

  • A new analysis says Affordable Care Act premiums could surge by double digits next year — again.


QUOTE OF THE DAY
"Yeah, however you look at it, it's not good for the economy, and that's an empirical statement."
— Zeke Hernandez, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School
Months after an aggressive, deadly crackdown in Minneapolis and other major cities last year. ICE has ramped up immigration arrests in recent weeks. The Supreme Court also cleared the way for the Trump administration to strip temporary protected status from Haitian and Syrian immigrants. Opening up hundreds of thousands of people to detention or immigration has serious economic implications.
HEAR MORE
Meta-provided screenshots show a user editing a vacation selfie to change the time of day visible in the background using AI prompts..
Courtesy Meta
Final note
Yesterday’s selfies are today’s AI fodder
Meta released a new artificial intelligence-powered image generator yesterday. Muse draws on the company's AI models and public Instagram posts to place users on vacations they’ve never been on, or show them meals they’ve never eaten, or whatever. All adult users are opted in by default. If that makes you uncomfortable, here’s how to opt out. 
 
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