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Yesterday’s elections showed voters are fed up with the cost of living. President Donald Trump won a second term largely on affordability, but Americans seem to be regarding him a bit differently now that he’s in office and things keep getting more expensive.

The President’s aggressive tariffs aren’t helping. The Supreme Court heard arguments today in a case over many of the import taxes Trump has raised without Congressional approval. The Justices appeared skeptical that the 50-year-old International Emergency Economic Powers Act actually allowed the government to collect some $90 billion in taxes these past several months.

Investors are giddy at the prospect these tariffs could be shot down, as predictions markets seem to think they will be. Some banks are even taking bets on the outcome of the case, with a cut of tariff refunds on the line. While we await a verdict, let’s take a closer look at how that refund might work. Plus, a little Election Day follow-up. — Tony Wagner, newsletter editor

Kevin Crane/Getty Images

If SCOTUS rejects Trump’s emergency tariffs, how will the government refund the money?

About $90 billion is on the line, and returning it could take months. Marketplace’s Justin Ho explains.

Refunds are actually common in the customs world. For instance, if a company accidentally pays too much in tariffs, it can ask Customs and Border Protection to give that money back.

“You have to provide the evidence that maybe you filed under the wrong code, and you feel like you’re owed a refund,” said Ryan Petersen, the CEO of Flexport, a supply chain management firm that helps companies request tariff refunds.

Petersen said the process normally takes six to nine months.

“It’ll depend on how good your case is, and if your paperwork is clear, if they sort of ask follow-up questions, and push on it, and stuff like that,” Petersen said.

So, if the government has to repay $90 billion worth of tariffs? The backlog could pile up.

“So, I think that the most likely approach would be like, alright, well there’s a legal process for this. Everyone get your receipts, find our forms, file the forms, dot all the Is, cross all the Ts,” said Rachel Brewster, a professor at Duke Law School.

Brewster said that takes time and resources.

“And you could imagine that for some small businesses who are really being hurt by the tariffs , the idea of hiring the lawyers or the accountants to put together the records to get that money back, might simply not be a cost-benefit proposition,” said Brewster.

News you should know

Let’s do the numbers

Solid earnings reports and economic data propelled Wall Street to a winning day. The S&P 500 closed 0.4% higher, the Dow added 0.5% and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.6%.
What economic data? In lieu of a government jobs report, payroll processor ADP reported private employers added 42,000 jobs last month, better than economists expected.
Also, services activity hit an eight-month high last quarter, even though jobs are few and far between.
Worse news: Total American household debt hit $18.59 trillion last quarter, according to the Federal Reserve. That’s a new record high.
The country’s 10 richest people made $698 billion in the past year, according to a new report. The average American household makes about $83,000 a year.

Election 2025

Zohran Mamdani won New York City’s mayoral election with a relentless focus on making one of the country’s most expensive cities more affordable. Catch up on his plans to raise taxes on the rich and freeze rent for a million apartments.
Mamdani’s newly announced transition team features a familiar face: Former Federal Trade Commission Chair and antitrust innovator Lina Khan.
Some election news you might have missed: Texas voters approved an $850 million endowment for the state’s technical college system to combat a skilled worker shortage.

The Trump administration

The White House outlined the smaller food benefits it will pay out in November after a federal judge ordered the administration to tap emergency funds. Experts say about five million people won’t get aid at all.
Nonprofits that do work the White House objects to, like supporting transgender or undocumented people, could see employees disqualified from the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

"It has been, just compared to a year ago, very complicated. Basically, on the international side … we have lost 100% of our wine sales."

— Katie Lazar, general manager at Cain Vineyard & Winery in Napa Valley, California

Big business has largely sat out the legal fight over Trump’s tariffs, but numbers show businesses big and small are bearing the brunt of these tax hikes. We talked with both Lazar and a steel exec about how they’ve been impacted.

Getty Images

Final note

Give a penny, take a penny — please!

The U.S. Mint ran out of the raw materials to make the penny more than six months early. The roughly 250 billion 1-cent coins in circulation are all we’ve got, and gas stations, convenience stores and fast food joints are scrambling to adjust.

Some are rounding down prices to the nearest nickel or asking employees to bring in rolls from the bank. Grocers were nervous because they aren’t allowed to adjust prices when accepting government benefits. At least one store is offering gift cards to customers who can rustle up enough change from their cupholders.

“We are at an inflection point in our country where we do what we can to protect our public media, or we lose it. Keep doing what you're doing, and thank you.”

— Marketplace Investor Maureen from Green Valley, Ariz.

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