Good evening. The brightest minds in monetary policy are headed to Jackson, Wyoming this week for the Federal Reserve’s annual economic policy symposium.

New-ish Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will give a closely watched speech Friday, and economists will be watching for any clue to how the central bank might address stubbornly high inflation. Thing is, there might not be much the Fed can do right now.

That’s where we’ll start today’s newsletter, but keep reading for the view of the economy from small businesses in the Cowboy State. Yee-haw. — Tony Wagner, newsletter editor  

Inflation has been above the Federal Reserve's target for years now.

New data has personal consumption expenditures up 3.7% annually in July. Strip out volatile food and energy, and the core inflation rate drops to 3.3%. Still way outside what the Fed considers “price stability.”

Trouble is, these latest price hikes are caused by things outside the Fed’s control.

“They cannot influence the war in Iran ,” said Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder and CEO of Q1 Research. “They cannot influence what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz. They cannot influence commodity prices. And they cannot influence prices that are driven upwards by tariffs.”

It’s not like the Fed can pump more oil or do away with President Donald Trump’s new tariffs.

“It’s a supply chain-driven situation that the Fed cannot influence,” DiMartino Booth said.

Fed officials’ tools can only fix the economy when demand is the problem: They can raise interest rates to make borrowing more expensive, dampen demand, and cool off the economy.

That tactic would not be effective now. Still, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh keeps insisting inflation will get back to the Fed’s target of 2%.

At this point, “The Fed can only hope that they can talk this inflation down,” said Olu Sonola, U.S. head of economics at Fisch Research. ”They can signal this inflation down. But they also recognize that the tool they have is quite blunt.”

And the worst part is that Fed officials don’t know how long they’ll be in this pickle.

About an hour south from the tony lodge where central bankers are discussing the global economy, there’s a whole local economy with its own challenges. Real estate prices have exploded in Jackson recently, making it difficult for workers in tourist-dependent businesses to find housing. 

They’re often about a bad meeting, or maybe a bad date. The poster will be surreptitiously recording, or giving “story time” direct to the camera. No matter the circumstances, the video will probably make you angry — “How could her boss say that?” 

These posts rack up huge views, but they’re often just disguised ads. Brands hire influencers to perform skits that might seem real, but ultimately point you toward AI software, or a gummy brand, or whatever. Enough views or clicks, and the creator gets a kickback.

The great Substack Link In Bio has more on why this practice almost certainly violates federal advertising rules, but is hard to regulate against. What happens when political advertisers employ the same fake-influencer tactics? Some swing state voters are already finding out.