The war in Iran is raising the price of just about every commodity, except copper. Economists look to the metal to understand what’s going on with the economy, so what’s “Dr. Copper” trying to tell us? We’ll get to that, and other leading indicators, in today’s newsletter. Then: There’s a huge tax deduction for high earners, but it comes at a big cost. Next, worker productivity slowed more than expected in the fourth quarter. But transit project work sped up, thanks to the World Cup. Finally, we’ll unravel the argument for putting your hobby to work. But first, my colleague  Caleigh Wells takes us to Beaver County, Pennsylvania, a former steel town that pinned its hopes on plastic. — Carrie Barber, newsletter editor

Beaver County’s population has been declining since the steel mill there closed 40 years ago.The shift to plastic manufacturing isn’t panning out, so some residents are investing in a different kind of economic model.

Daniel Rossi-Keen has lived in Beaver County for 15 years.

He’s driving through small town after small town along the Ohio River, past lots of people in Pittsburgh Steelers beanies, plus boarded up storefronts and closed down factories and power plants.

“It's like in West Virginia, you know, can we just get back to coal? It's like in Detroit. Can we just make cars in America again? That sensibility is very strong,” he said.

Beaver County, Pennsylvania, just northwest of Pittsburgh, used to be steel country. People who lived there made steel used in the Empire State Building and military hardware that won the World Wars. But its steel mill closed 40 years ago, and the population has been declining ever since.

Then in 2012, some residents were convinced that a new plant would reverse Beaver County’s decline. It was the height of the shale boom, and Pennsylvania and neighboring states were some of the largest sources of natural gas in the U.S.

Shell announced it was going to build a plant that turns that gas into the plastic in water bottles and toys and car parts. And it would be right in Beaver County.

“Shell officials stood up and said, ‘When we turn the lights on at that facility, you'll never recognize your community again,’” Rossi-Keen said.

With it would come new jobs and tax revenue and prosperity, just like the old days. The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania granted a $1.65 billion tax break, the largest in its history.

“What I’ve learned about this area because of the steel boom and the steel decline, I can understand why it sounded like such a great addition to the county,” said Beaver County resident Joline Atkins. “It just doesn’t seem like the employment cash cow that it was supposed to be.”

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