Good evening. First-time unemployment claims fell this week to 197,000, and lately they’ve been flirting with a decades-long low. That’s the low-hire, low-hire economy for ya. Economists look at these initial claims as a proxy for layoffs, but we’re going to start today with a look at what those unlucky few end up doing after their jobs are cut. — Tony Wagner, newsletter editor  

Odds are that if a person gets laid off, they’re going to switch to an entirely new job.

A study from career transition company LHH found that 57.7% of the laid off people the firm surveyed said that they swapped job titles in 2025. That figure has stayed roughly the same for the past three years.

However, the top reasons people have lost their jobs — and the reasons they’re switching — are new.

Once upon a time (as in, the mid-20th century) the job market was more centered around manufacturing and construction. So, it was more cyclical, according to Guy Berger, director of economic research at The Burning Glass Institute.

“And so, you have these layoffs, and then, eventually, the inventories roll down, and you start producing stuff again,” Berger said. “People get recalled back to work.”

He said that by the 1990s, that cyclical job market was pretty much gone. Now, it’s different.

“You have these permanent layoffs where you lose a job, and the job's gone,” Berger said.

New-ish Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has been keeping mum about the central bank’s next moves, but other officials are increasingly filling the forward guidance gap.

PepsiCo slashed prices by double digits earlier this year. Now, after disappointing earnings last quarter, the company is planning hikes on chips, dip and other products. A spokesperson told Bloomberg the new  prices will still be lower than they were before those big earlier cuts, which makes me wonder what they were trying to pull with $7 Doritos in the first place.