Hey there, happy Monday. We’re due for new inflation data Thursday using the Federal Reserve’s favorite metric. If we were betting people we’d put good money on beef being way up, and in today’s newsletter we’ll examine why.

Later, we’ll remember former Fed chair Alan Greenspan and talk with the current Chicago Fed president about potential stagflation. Plus, we’ve got the latest out of Hollywood and good news for anyone who hoarded Bed Bath & Beyond coupons all these years. — Tony Wagner, newsletter editor

In less than two weeks, millions upon millions of Americans fire up the grill to cook up some burgers for the Fourth of July — unless they’ve decided the beef for those burgers is just too expensive.

The price of a pound of ground beef is up almost 13% compared to May of last year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The cost has more than doubled over the past 15 years.

The USDA predicts beef prices will go up another 10% in 2026 — much faster than the rate of inflation. High demand and low supply makes for a perfect storm, said Jamie Luke, a professor of agriculture, food and resource economics at Michigan State University.

“Right now we have a historically low number of beef cows in the country,” she said.

War in the Middle East has made fertilizer and fuel more expensive, which makes cattle feed more expensive. On top of that, weather forecasters are predicting an especially hot and dry year in parts of the U.S. with lots of cattle.

“Producers have had to make that difficult call to reduce the number of animals they have in their herd to be able to have enough forage to feed,” Luke said.

And that’s just the supply side.

“Personally, I think the bigger story in beef prices is the consumer demand side,” said Brian Coffey, a professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University.

Goolsbee talked with “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal today about “looking through” inflationary shocks to set interest rates, and the limits of that approach. He also discussed the Fed’s credibility and approach to forward guidance under new chair Kevin Warsh and the legacy of Alan Greenspan.

Before it went out of business in 2023, Bed Bath & Beyond was known for its 20% off coupons, which seemed to pile up in drawers and on refrigerators and would often be accepted long after expiration. In fact, pulling back from coupons was part of what sent the retailer spiraling in the first place.

Now the brand has been resurrected by Overstock and all those old coupons are good again in reopened stores. Bed Bath’s biggest fans are Beyond vindicated, and showing off their coupons from the George W. Bush administration.