We’ve hit the two-month mark of this historic energy supply disruption, spurred by President Donald Trump’s war with Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Every day, as countries make their way through inventories and less oil is being produced and delivered, the competition gets steeper for new barrels.

That competition is showing up in the physical market for oil — the very high price you pay to get a barrel delivered today. But that price is different from what financial markets tell us the price of oil should be or will be.

Let’s say a distributor is trying to buy a million barrels of crude oil. It had a contract from a producer in the Middle East, but that oil is tied up in the Strait of Hormuz. So it needs oil now, on the spot market. And for a lot more money.

“The physical market is skyrocketing. We've seen delivery for physical Brent crude going, you know, like $144,” said Joe DeLaura, senior energy strategist at Rabobank.

That’s well above the “on paper” prices being set by Wall Street types.

“It's a divergence of what people think versus reality,” DeLaura said.

Jerome Powell likely gave his last press conference as Federal Reserve chair yesterday, but said he plans to stay on as a Fed governor after his chairmanship ends next month. Powell said he aims to preserve the central bank’s political independence after the Justice Department dropped a criminal investigation he said was a pretext for influencing monetary policy. 
 

A reporter followed up: “You mentioned that, staying on as Fed governor, you intend to keep a low profile. Could you give us a little more detail on what that looks like?”

Powell slowly sank behind his lectern.