Ask a lender how they decide to make a loan, and they’ll often bring up “the five C’s of lending.”
“Character, capacity to repay, capital … collateral, and conditions,” said Robert James II, president and CEO of Carver Financial Corporation. “We’re looking at how the loan will be used and external factors like interest rates and trends in the industry.”
He said the most important “C” on that list is character, as in a borrower’s credit history. But another big one is capacity. That is, whether a borrower will be able to repay. “And that’s where the presence of AI, the threat of AI, or perhaps the opportunity presented by AI, starts to impact a business model,” James said. The Federal Reserve released its most recent quarterly opinion survey of senior loan officers
this week, with new questions about artificial intelligence. Lenders told the Fed they were more likely to approve a loan if they thought AI could help the borrower, and less likely if they thought AI might threaten the business.
For example, a bank might think twice about lending to a company that provides services that AI can provide, said David Schiff, senior managing director with FTI Consulting. “There’s a threat where customers could substitute and/or put pricing pressure on them,” he said. On the other hand, AI could make some borrowers more attractive to lenders. A company that can use AI tools might be able to cut costs and pay off its debt more easily.
“Where there is a lot of underlying expense tied to easily repeatable, digitizable tasks, a lot of banks are looking at that as a cost-save opportunity,” he said, adding it can be challenging to figure out whether AI poses an opportunity or a threat in some cases. “And it’s something the banks are having to look at and have judgement calls on, and at the end of the day, they’re making bets,” he said. But not for all bankers.
“It’s a non-factor for my customers,” Brad Bolton, president and CEO of Community Spirit Bank in Red Bay, Alabama, told us. “I just don’t see that my customer — that’s hauling dog food or paper out of a paper mill, that’s a trucker — their lives are not going to be changed by AI.” At least, he said, not within the next five or so years. |