Prepare for rate hikes. That was the takeaway from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first big speech today, and markets reacted accordingly.

Inflation has been elevated for years now, and we’re seeing signs of strain among the ever-resilient American consumer. But a lot of the forces raising prices right now are out of the Fed’s control. We’ll start today’s newsletter with one more thing out of Warsh’s hands: Immigration policy, and its impacts on small business.

Keep reading for what big businesses are doing with their nine-figure tariff refunds, changes coming to your workplace, and the state of the coffee economy. Have a great weekend! — Tony Wagner, newsletter editor 

For three decades, Juan has run a tire shop in Houston’s East End, a historic Latino neighborhood. He’s never seen business this bad.

“This is the worst crisis I’ve seen in my time living in this country,” Juan said in Spanish. Marketplace is using his first name only; Juan said he’s afraid immigration enforcement might target his business.

“I’ve seen other recessions but not to the extreme like it is now,” he said.

Rent and utilities are getting higher. But immigration policy has slowed foot traffic and demand for tires.

“Now, when people get home from work they lock themselves in their houses and don’t go out,” he said.

People in his community are driving less, he said, to avoid getting pulled over. That’s been happening since President Donald Trump took office in 2024.

But more recently, a fatal shooting by ICE of a local community member stopped business in its tracks. Lorenzo Salgado Araujo was killed near Juan’s tire shop earlier this summer. Juan said people are scared.

“There's uncertainty because they don’t know from one moment to the next if another tragedy could happen,” he said.

He’s offered discounts to bring back customers, but it’s tough. He said he’s worried he may have to close his shop.

It’s hard to imagine business bouncing back as long as the Trump administration is in control of immigration policy.

The hottest tech in movies is nearly a century old. Moviegoers traveled far and wide to see “The Odyssey” on IMAX 70mm film this summer, and after Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” attracted similar buzz last year, Disney announced “Black Panther 3” will film on celluloid, too.

Trouble is, large-format analog projectors are hard to come by, and theaters who retrofit to show film rely on a shrinking group of old pros who know how to install and maintain the equipment.

Coffee? A large drip at the Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole will cost you $6.42, according to Neil Irwin at Axios, steady after years of 5-ish% inflation.

PSL? Starbucks began selling pumpkin spice lattes again Tuesday, a day earlier than last year. Let the backlash begin.

Weird third thing? Starbs and rival chain Dunkin’ are making billions on “refreshers,” blended drinks that resemble dirty soda more than coffee, with sweet flavors and bright colors designed to pop on social media. At Starbucks, an additive meant to keep all the syrups, creams and ice blended together was making staffers sick.