Consumer prices rose 4.2% annually in May, according to the consumer price index. That inflation rate, a three-year-high, is driven largely by the ongoing war in the Middle East. Energy prices are up nearly 24% since last year.

All of this is very bad news for who the CPI is all about: consumers.

“Consumer pockets have limited ability to stretch,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, a senior U.S. economist at The Conference Board.

As energy prices push inflation higher than wage increases, she said, “that means negative implications for consumer spending going forward.”

If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and the world drains its oil inventories further, energy prices could spike even higher.

There’s a risk that what’s happening with energy prices could shape consumers' inflation expectations, said Christiane Baumeister, a macroeconomist at the University of Notre Dame.

“They have been seen once again, month after month, since the outbreak of the war, prices rising, right? And they might just start expecting further and further increases, and that means inflation expectations might become unanchored,” she said.

That’s a risk for the Federal Reserve. And even though core inflation — which strips out food and energy — is still below 3%, Baumeister suspects that measure could move up.

“The inflation process is a staggered process,” she said. “Some companies might have taken a wait and see approach before passing costs on to consumers, but I think that that might still happen.”

Cloud seeding has a dark history. During the Vietnam War, the U.S. Air Force secretly dropped particles into clouds to prolong the monsoon season and flood the Ho Chi Minh Trail, a lifeline for the North Vietnamese military. After Senate hearings on Operation Popeye, the U.S. and more than 30 other countries agreed to ban weather warfare.

Now companies like Rainmaker are looking to use improved cloud seeding techniques to replenish lakes and rivers, and in turn stimulate the economies around them. But it’s hard to tell when cloud seeding works, and some scientists aren’t convinced more rain will be as effective as simply cutting back on water use.

Trump’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed new rules for prediction markets today. The regulation would ban bets on war, terrorism and assassinations while formally allowing sports wagering overall. A few carveouts though: The CFTC wants to ban trades that could be determined by a single player, like pitches or free throws, plus fights and injuries.

These moves are designed to curb national security risks, preserve incentives and insider training. The major prediction markets already ban some of these bets, and one platform, Kalshi, announced its own rules that would compel users to disclose their line of work before betting.