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Hello, welcome to a big week for jobs data.

Or at least, it should be a big week. We were scheduled to get the job openings and labor turnover survey tomorrow, followed by January’s job creation and unemployment data Friday. The partial government shutdown has delayed the latter.

We did talk with economists about what they expect to see in the latest data, and we’ll get to that below, along with the latest on the Epstein files and a huge tech merger. First though, my colleague Justin Ho looks at what we do know about the labor market right now. —  Tony Wagner, newsletter editor
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Productivity's growing. Why aren't wages keeping up?
More productive companies bring in more profits, which can enable them to raise wages. Key word is “can,” not “will.”

One of the brightest spots in this economy in recent years has been labor productivity: how much stuff we make and do in every hour that we spend making and doing it. 

Productivity has been growing faster than it has historically, which has plenty of benefits: More productivity can generate more profit, it can help businesses keep their prices down, and it can let them raise wages.

But even though productivity growth has stayed strong in recent years, wage growth has been slowing. That’s a sign that the economy’s missing out on the benefits of strong productivity growth.

If you’re a business owner and your workforce becomes twice as productive, that means it can finish a day’s work in half the amount of time. You could send those workers home, or you could have them make or do more stuff, so the business can make more money.

“That’s exactly where economists would say that productivity is the elixir for overall output growth,” said Nicole Cervi, an economist with Wells Fargo.

Cervi said more productive businesses can use that extra money to grow; they can buy new equipment, open a new location, or raise wages.

“If you have stronger profitability because you’re producing more per hour worked, you could turn around and reward your workers by giving them higher wages,” Cervi said.

Higher productivity doesn’t always mean higher wages, however. Ever since the 1980s, wage growth has been held back by de-unionization and too much unemployment, said Ben Zipperer, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.

“When there’s more people trying to find a job, that means employers don’t have to work as hard to find workers, and that puts downward pressure on hourly pay,” Zipperer said.

That’s why wage growth hasn’t kept up with productivity growth, he said. “Workers are almost producing twice as much as they used to produce, in real terms since 1980 or 1979, whereas hourly pay basically grew by only a third of that.”

That gap started to narrow again after the pandemic.

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News you should know

Let’s do the numbers

  • Stocks got a solid start to the week. The S&P 500 closed 0.5% higher, the Dow added 1.1% and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.6%.

  • Metals were trying to find a new level today after gold and silver saw their biggest single-day drop in decades Friday.

  • We asked economists what they’re looking for in the first jobs numbers of 2026 — whenever they come out.

Government

  • Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made plans to visit Jeffery Epstein’s private island as recently as 2012, according to the latest files released by the Justice Department. Lutnick had previously claimed he cut ties with “that disgusting person” years earlier, and he’s not the only powerful businessperson to appear in the new doc drop.

  • Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, will be facing a tough job if he’s confirmed: Americans are sweating even as the economy grows. Trump’s desired rate cuts could make it all worse.

  • Five states enacted laws restricting STAMP recipients from buying sugary beverages and snacks with government benefits. About a dozen more will follow suit later this year.

Tech

  • Elon Musk’s companies SpaceX and xAI merged, creating a $1.25 trillion tech giant that’s reportedly headed for a huge IPO.

  • Some businesses have attributed recent layoffs to AI. Does that pass the smell test? 

  • OpenAI is also preparing to go public, but Nvidia is backing off its previously announced investment of up to $100 billion. Oracle, of which OpenAI is a big customer, piped up to say it wasn’t worried. Notable as we ponder whether an increasingly circular industry is “too big to fail.” 

  • Tech columnist Christopher Mims wrote two dozen “laws” for working with artificial intelligence for a new book. He came on "Marketplace Tech” to talk about a few, starting with “AI is an assistant, not a replacement.”
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QUOTE OF THE DAY
"Figure skating at the Olympics is a very different beast than figure skating anywhere else."
—  Jackie Wong, host of “The Rocker Skating Podcast”

Wong is a self-described “skate nerd” all the time, but every four years shows like ours, not to mention NBC, call up Wong to help us understand one of the signature sports of the winter Olympics.

“Make Me Smart” host Kimberly Adams called up Wong Friday to learn what he’s most excited to see after the games start in Milan this week. He also explained a key rule change and discussed the Olympians who incur huge debt to go for gold.

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Final note
A very qualified success 

“Melania,” a documentary about First Lady Melania Trump, pulled in $7 million at the North American box office this weekend. Concert films aside, it’s the biggest opening for a documentary in well over a decade.

However, “Melania” cost far more to produce than a doc of this kind normally would. Amazon reportedly paid $40 million just for the right to make the movie, then spent another $35 million promoting it. Critics have speculated the production was meant to buy favor with a very transactional White House, though Amazon denies this.
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