You probably already felt it, but inflation got worse in September. 

The consumer price index rose 3.7% annually, 0.6% from August. That’s the biggest increase in five months. Prices were up 2.6% year-over-year if you exclude food and energy, but that’s still above the Federal Reserve’s target and more than economists expected. Also, you know, you gotta eat.

You also need fuel to move other things around, and today we'll examine just how much energy is driving up prices for everything else. Don’t worry, I stuck a feel-good story at the end. — Tony Wagner, newsletter editor

Energy prices are driving up inflation, thanks to the ongoing war in Iran. That’s the dumpster fire in the economy, so how far is it going to spread?

The best way to tell that is to look at how other areas are doing — like services.

“Services inflation is just not dampening down at all,” said Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights.

So, there are areas of mild concern around the dumpster.

“Recreation services were relatively strong today,” Sharif said. “Hotel rates have moved up sharply the last few months. Air fares are still rising as airlines try to recoup jet fuel costs.”

Still, other prices have come down — like beef, pork, milk.

The government measures inflation across goods and services, and tracks when it is below 2% or above it. People notice the latter much more than the former.

“[But] right now, it’s about a 50-50 split,” said Eric Winograd, director of developed market research at AllianceBernstein.

That means the dumpster fire is not spreading much.

“The truth is, the second-round effects, or the knock-on effects from oil into other prices have been a lot more limited than I think most people would have expected,” Winograd said.

Markets are still betting the Federal Reserve is going to hose down the economy with an interest rate hike in December just to be safe.

But regardless of whatever is happening with inflation around the dumpster, the actual dumpster is still on fire.

“You can’t really just exclude energy,” said Alan Detmeister, an economist at UBS. “People can’t just not pay for gas, not pay their heating bills.”

More than half of today’s inflation comes from higher gas and diesel prices alone. And that inflation has been higher than wage growth for six months in a row since the Iran war began.

Goffe got a job in a political campaign right out of school, but she lost it recently and moved back in with her parents while she figures out what’s next.

The low hire, low fire economy is hitting young people hard: The unemployment rate for those ages 20 to 24 hit 8% in September, nearly a full percentage point higher than it was a year ago and almost double the jobless rate for the country as a whole.

The Wall Street Journal (gift link) profiled a New York teen who plastered flyers all around the city asking to shadow adults with interesting jobs. He’s had tons of takers, and he’s logging what he’s learned in a spreadsheet as he tries to figure out what career to pursue.