When tried and true data points tell us very different stories, what do we really know about where our economy is headed?

It's not easy to figure out which way this economy’s headed.

That’s a theme we’ve returned to a couple of times recently on "Marketplace" when we've received apparently contradictory economic data, like we did today.

In the maybe-not-such-good-news column: First-time unemployment claims shot up to 240,000 — that’s 17,000 more than the previous week. 

But in the definitely-good-news column: Durable goods orders — for things like cars and machinery — rose 1% in October, much more than expected.

To try to untangle that puzzler, let’s start with the most worrisome news: Jobless claims are at a three-month high. Plus, there’s been a wave of layoff announcements, including from Amazon and other tech firms.

But tech is not the economy. “It remains premature to say that we’re seeing a downturn in employment, in large part because the tech sector represents a relatively small share of the total U.S. economy — something like 7% of total workers,” said John Leer, chief economist at Morning Consult.

And these victims of the tech slump don’t worry Leer overmuch. 

“Many of those workers who are being laid off are basically immediately finding new jobs. It still remains a very tight labor market for folks who have that skill set," he said.

Then, there’s that favorable economic news — rising orders for durable goods in October, led by aircraft, autos, manufacturing and business equipment.

That points to a big improvement in global supply chains and few shortages, said Andrew Hunter at Capital Economics.

“Particularly things like semiconductors, which were causing significant problems in the auto sector. Those shortages are now fading, or in some cases are even turning to, to gluts of parts,” Hunter said.

Strong business investment is another factor keeping the economy humming, said Sara Johnson at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“It’s a very tight labor market, so businesses will invest in labor-saving technologies," she said.

But, as good as the current economic data is, Johnson said, it’s still likely to worsen in the coming months as rising interest rates slow the economy. 

While we’re here, a programming note: We’ll be off Thursday and Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday, then back in your inbox with links galore Monday.

Quote of the day

 “If it doesn’t look too bad, then I’d probably buy it. But if it’s hideous and looks totally freaky, no, I probably wouldn’t, no.”

—  Shopper Dee Aydan, on buying discounted, “wonky” fruit and vegetables 

Skyrocketing food prices in the United Kingdom have boosted the market for “ugly” — and therefore discounted — produce. Well, within reason.

On the bright side …

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes, aimed at taming wild inflation, have caused plenty of pain for consumers. Credit card debt is up and more expensive, for example, and mortgage rates have more than doubled. But there’s at least one concrete benefit in the short term. Those increased rates are “a great new story” for savers, who now earn more interest on their money that’s sitting in the bank.

This newsletter was written by Mitchell Hartman and Virginia K. Smith. 

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