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Hey there, how are you feeling today? Me, I love October. It’s nice and brisk out, the World Series is going great (sorry), Halloween is on a Saturday and I’m already planning my Thanksgiving menu.

Consumers were in an unexpectedly good mood this month too, according to new data from the Conference Board. How do we square that with an affordability election and the fast-approaching holiday shopping season? That’s where we’ll start today’s newsletter.  — Tony Wagner, newsletter editor
Shoppers in the Halloween candy aisle at Target,
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Consumer confidence ticked up unexpectedly. Is it just a blip?
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to its highest level since June. What’s going on? Nancy Marshall-Genzer reports.
Consumer confidence has been bouncing around since 2022, said Conference Board CEO Steve Odland. In September, for example, it hit a 12-year low.

“The bounce tends to be around how consumers are feeling about gas prices and food prices at that particular time when they complete the survey,” he said.

Average gas prices did dip a bit in October. Odland said consumer confidence is still on a general downward trend though — with a sharp generational divide. Gen Z and millennials are much more confident than Gen Xers and Boomers right now.

“You see your food bill skyrocketing, your gas bill skyrocketing — well your fixed income is not buying quite as much,” he said.

Consumer sentiment also breaks down along party lines. Confidence improved much more for Republicans. Ted Rossman with Money Management International said the October confidence increase could give Republican candidates a whiff of hope, but in general, he thinks the economy is more of a weakness for Republicans right now.

Consumers in this latest survey did say they’ll spend less on services and durable goods over the next six months. But they’ve been saying that for a while.

“People are still going to spend, but you’re going to see less product for your dollar spent,” said Chip Lupo at Wallethub.

He predicted holiday sales will increase this year. But mostly because consumers are paying higher prices, not because they’re getting more stuff.


 
News you should know
Let’s do the numbers
  • Wall Street has decided it’s not worried about AI again, lifting stocks. The S&P 500 closed up 0.6% today, the Dow barely moved but the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 1.2%.

  • Doordash pulled out of a weeklong, double-digit slide today with shares rising 1.26% on the news it’s close to acquiring Instacart in a $17 billion deal.

The Trump administration
  • The Federal Trade Commission and 20 states sued Dollar General, claiming the retailer overcharged customers by millions.

  • The White House has suspended H1-B visas for some tech companies, accusing high-skill foreign workers of taking American jobs. The evidence doesn’t support that.

  • A new rule from the Department of Transportation lists 10 causes of flight delays or cancellations it will no longer consider the airline at fault for. That could mean less money in your pocket.
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A woamn poses for a portrait in a movie theater.
Stephanie Silverman (Photo by Amiee Stubbs)
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I used to say it's 1980s movie pricing; I think we are edging into 1990s movie pricing, but it's still … a very, very accessible affordable place.”
— Stephanie Silverman, the executive director of the Belcourt Theatre in Nashville
We check in with Silverman from time to time to talk about how the movie business is looking for independent exhibitors. Right now, business is good thanks to sold-out showings of the Elizabeth Holmes documentary “You Can See Everything” and support from paying members, though the Belcourt had to raise prices recently.
HEAR MORE


An iPhone Duo, unfolded, with a bright white line shot across the screen.
u/Vishnu_RK on Reddit
Final note
iPhone Du-oh no
The new Duo model is Apple’s biggest change to the iPhone in years, but some early adopters are encountering an old problem: cracked screens. Users have reported issues with the internal screen after just a few folds. Apple acknowledged the issue and said anyone impacted could get a replacement. The folks at iFixit tore down the $2,000+ device to figure out what might be going on. For what it’s worth, we talked with a reviewer who folded the phone thousands of times and got no cracks.
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