The American consumer — that’s me, and likely you — has been spending big.

After years of elevated inflation, and raises that didn’t keep up with the rising cost of living, retail sales kept on rising even faster. After the first quarter of this year, many businesses praised shoppers’ "resilience" in the face of economic headwinds. Now there are signs those resilient consumers are starting to crack under the pressure.

We’ll get you up to speed in today’s newsletter, before we get earnings reports from some big-box retailers and learn where exactly shoppers are cutting back. Plus: A check on the Chinese economy, and the 90s company you had no idea was still going (for another month, anyway). See you tomorrow! — Tony Wagner, newsletter editor

Welcome to the back half of August, and the last days of summer.

Back-to-school shopping is well underway, Halloween displays are already up at big box stores, and retailers will soon start promoting early sales for the holidays.

So, where is the American consumer through all of this? How are they doing financially? How are they feeling about what they have to spend, and what they can afford to buy? Well, the data isn’t looking great.

Consumer sentiment took a tumble in early August, according to preliminary results for the University of Michigan’s survey for the month, driven principally by rising energy prices as the war in Iran heated up. July retail sales were pretty lousy — down more than half a percent from June. And AAA reported the average price of a gallon of regular gas nationwide at $4.06 a gallon on Monday, near a record high for August.

A lot of economic warning signs were flashing red after the sharp pullback in consumers’ retail spending in July.

“(But) this is a one-month report, and you had pretty strong numbers all throughout the year,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.

However, Roach admitted some categories of discretionary spending have started to weaken.

“Hotel occupancy rates, TSA throughput — because travel is a leading indicator for how consumers feel,” he said.

The job market has also weakened, and wage gains have started to fall behind overall inflation, said Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan surveys.

“Only 8% of consumers believe that their income growth is going to exceed inflation — that’s really not very many people at all,” Hsu said. “What we’re seeing is that consumers are expecting to be squeezed. They’re not anticipating anything catastrophic.”

What that means going forward is probably that consumer spending doesn’t fall off a cliff, but it doesn’t rebound to stronger levels from earlier this year, either.

More than 80% of mobile games fold within three years of release, but 2012’s Candy Crush Saga still averages over 80 million active monthly users and generates nearly $1 billion in revenue annually for its parent company, King. What’s behind the game’s staying power?

Now, the mail-order music club has changed hands a few times as it’s struggled financially — it didn’t even sell music anymore — but Columbia House will still sell you Blu-ray discs for another month or so before finally shutting down.

The company made its name on an irresistible introductory offer: 12 records for a penny? What’s the catch?

The gnarly truth is in 2026, streaming has basically made recorded music free. If you’re as nostalgic as I am for the record industry and Columbia House’s heyday, I’ll be watching “The Target Shoots First,” a DIY documentary shot inside the company in the 90s, tonight. It’s free on YouTube.