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It's Monday, and we have some good news: The price of a barrel of oil fell a bit today. But it’s likely a brief reprieve. If the war in Iran continues to derail oil shipments, gas prices will keep climbing. How much are consumers willing to pay at the pump? Later, we’ll meet a Minneapolis restaurateur making bank by giving away food, and trace the downfall of another royal. First, my colleague  Kristin Schwab explains what to expect from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates. — Carrie Barber, newsletter writer
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Interest rates expected to stay steady
Elevated inflation and a shaky job market are two indicators the central bank will consider this week at its meeting.
The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision Wednesday. The last time the Fed changed the federal funds rate was in December. Then, we got a pause in January.

This time around, between elevated inflation and a shaky job market, the Federal Reserve is setting the stage for another interest rate hold.
 
Former Fed governor Randy Kroszner said the war in the Middle East basically cemented the hold — here in the U.S. and around the world.
 
“Almost every major central bank is having a meeting this week and I think almost all of them are going to stay on hold,” he said.
 
Uncertainty forces economies to stop, observe, and recalibrate, said former Fed adviser Ellen Meade.
 
“If an oil shock or something very similar to it is short lived, probably the best thing a central bank can do is just wait,” she said.
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News you should know
Let’s do the numbers
  • The major stock indexes were up today, thanks to a drop in oil prices. The S&P 500 gained 1%, while the Dow climbed 0.8% and the Nasdaq jumped 1.2%.

  • Still, the price of oil hovered around $100 a barrel Monday. Consumers can stomach more than one might think.  
The Trump administration
  • The Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly preparing to let public companies report earnings just twice a year. It’s an idea President Donald Trump has endorsed; here are the pros and cons of quarterly earnings as we know them.

  • One more thing on the Fed: A federal judge on Friday rejected subpoenas served to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by the Justice Department. The judge cited “essentially zero evidence” for a probe into a costly renovation at Fed HQ. It’s a blow to the Trump administration’s unprecedented assault on central bank independence.
Your money
  • First-time homebuyers are increasingly leveraging buy now, pay later services to stay liquid. Here’s how it works, and what they’re buying.

  • Most people think of crypto as a risky stock, not a currency, Wharton professor David Reibstein says. His Consumer Cryptocurrency Confidence Index could help predict crypto prices and guide individual investors.


QUOTE OF THE DAY
"I can't remember a single February where we hadn't had a loss for the month. This was our first February where we didn't lose money."
— Dylan Alverson, owner of Minneapolis cafe Post Modern Times
It was just called Modern Times before the Trump administration’s aggressive, deadly immigration crackdown in the Twin Cities. The best way Alverson knew how to help his neighbors was shifting to a volunteer-driven, pay-what-you-can model. Alverson said the restaurant has been busier than ever, and not just with people eating free. 
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The Burger King mascot sits deject on a curb outside an office building, with a box of personal items at his side.
Click to watch the 90-second apology ad (Image courtesy Burger King)
Final note
Burger King is really, really sorry
During last night’s Academy Awards, the fast-food giant ran an ad practically long enough to qualify for the short-subject category. In it, Burger King traced its history, and admitted to losing its way with slow service and squished burgers. And in another humiliating blow to royalty, the chain even fired its creepy king mascot. Business Insider talked to brand experts about whether consumers like to see companies beat themselves up.   
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