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Humility is a virtue, and it’s important to admit when we don’t know everything. Take artificial intelligence in the workplace. Yes, productivity has been rising as of late, and AI could be part of the reason. But it also could be because of better business practices, investments in R&D, or half a dozen other things.

Even at companies embracing AI, corporate leaders say generative AI hasn’t made much change in employment or productivity. And, as my colleague Justin Ho reports, it’s probably too early for us to specifically measure AI’s impact on the entire economy. —  Dylan Miettinen, digital producer
Two workers sit next to each other in an office while working on desktop computers. More workers are seen in background.
Bertrand Guay/AFP via Getty Images
AI’s effect on labor productivity is murkier than you might think
Artificial intelligence tools could make the labor force more productive. But the link between AI and increased productivity isn’t quite clear yet.
About a year and a half ago, a bike parts manufacturer near Minneapolis called Wolf Tooth Components started dabbling with AI. Co-owner Brendan Moore said the company thought it might be able to help doing research on the market for new products.

“We want to design a trinket ‘A,’” Moore said. “What’s the competitive landscape of trinket ‘A’ out in the world, and what does the broader internet think about product offerings, and where are the weaknesses?”

Moore said the tools did a good job. So the company started using AI to improve its website, and to help brainstorm names for new products. It’s also using AI to help automate some of the menial jobs real people used to have to do with its manufacturing software.

“If you think about an administrative task of a human doing 10 clicks, to just move material from here to here to here, so we know where it is in the manufacturing process — we just automated that,” Moore said.

Moore said some of that work used to take half a day. So now, his staff can use that time to focus on other stuff that requires an actual human brain.

“Developing supply chains for a new product,” Moore said. “Looking at costing, looking at even material certifications; all of these things that you have to do that are complex and require a lot of nuanced thinking.”

As a result, Moore said the company can develop more products, more quickly, at a better price.

“How much better, it totally depends on the product,” Moore said. “But, essentially, it’s going to be a better experience for our customers, and it’s going to be better for our business, because of the efficiencies we’re going to have.”

That is the definition of higher productivity: more output in less time. But while it’s easy to see AI’s impact on one firm, it’s not so easy to see how it’s affecting the economy as a whole.
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News you should know
Let’s do the numbers
  • Hump day finished in the green for the major stock indexes. The tech-heavy S&P 500 closed up 0.56%, thanks to Nvidia’s announcement of a multiyear chip partnership with Meta. The Nasdaq ticked up 0.78%, and the Dow gained 0.26%.
  • A gallon of gas in California costs $4.60, according to AAA. That’s around $1.70 more than the national average. It largely boils down to taxes and state policies around building oil refineries.

  • The average residential energy bill jumped 30% between 2021 and 2025. Yikes! Grist has a tool that lets you compare your state’s energy prices to the national average.

Jobs, jobs, jobs
  • The share of people who have been out of work for more than six months has been climbing for the past three years.
  • Recruiters just drew the reverse card. So instead of headhunters working with companies, they’re pitching themselves to jobseekers.

  • Illinois’ Clean Slate Act will automatically seal the records of people convicted of certain non-violent felonies, which could make it easier for nearly 2 million people to reenter the job market.

  • Blue-collar workers have long faced job losses brought on by automation. Now, rapid AI advancement is threatening to automate some white-collar jobs out of existence, and economists are worried about what it means for the job market. But hey, at least RentAHuman is hiring.
Immigration
  • Parts of the U.S. that recently experienced the biggest drops in unauthorized immigration also saw the largest slowdowns in employment growth.

  • ICE raids in Minneapolis cost the city roughly $203 million, according to Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey. Now, Frey is asking the state and federal government to help foot the bill. 
  • In Louisiana, the Coast Guard is conducting immigration raids, too, stoking fear for many undocumented workers in the Gulf Coast’s seafood industry.

  • ICE is scooping up warehouses across the country. Neighbors opposed to the administration's aggressive immigration enforcement sometimes have little opportunity for input and few tools to fight back.
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LET'S GO
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Sweden is the odd man out. Sweden was proud of being it. Now we are afraid.”
—  Anders Aslund, senior fellow at the Stockholm Free World Forum
While most countries in the European Union use the euro, Sweden decided about two decades ago to stick with the krona. Now, shifting geopolitics is making the euro look more appealing.
HEAR MORE
Kai Ryssdal speaking directly into a camera.
Click above to watch @kairyssdal's full Instagram reel. 
Final note
A quick fact-check from @kairyssdal
Earlier today on CNBC, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett tore into a New York Fed report finding  American consumers and businesses shouldered roughly 90% of the cost of tariffs . Hassett said tariffs had little effect on consumer prices,  it was “the worst paper I’ve ever seen in the history of the Federal Reserve system,” and that the authors of the study should be disciplined.

To be clear: Hassett is wrong. U.S. firms and consumers are bearing the brunt of cost increases brought on by tariffs. “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal took to Instagram to break it down.

This newsletter was written by Dylan Miettinen and edited by Tony Wagner.

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