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Plus: Trump’s new tariffs and the big numbers behind the World Cup 
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Happy Monday — or is it? The World Cup is over, fighting has escalated in the Middle East and we’re still not positive which vegetables are making people sick. We’ll do the numbers on everything, including the impact on FIFA, oil markets and more, below. But first, Marketplace’s Kristin Schwab talks about gas prices, which just hit a key milestone. — Tony Wagner, newsletter editor
A gas station in Los Angeles
Ronaldo Bolaños / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
Gas prices hit $4 a gallon again
Oil prices could have been even higher, but for now, investors expect Iran and the U.S. to come back to the negotiating table.
The average price for a gallon of gas on Monday has pushed back up above $4 a gallon, according to AAA, as fighting between the U.S. and Iran intensifies again. The last time gas climbed above $4 was at the end of March, about a month into the war.

At the heart of oil prices right now sit two questions, according to Severin Borenstein, professor of economic analysis and policy at UC Berkeley’s Energy Institute at Haas.

“How much political stomach Trump has for higher gas prices, and how much the Iranians can live with in terms of disruption to their economy,” Borenstein said.

Oil hit $90 a barrel on Monday morning, which so far reflects the idea that markets think President Donald Trump and the Iranians want to negotiate. Because otherwise, Borenstein said, prices would be worse.

“Early on in the war, there were predictions of $150 or $200 per barrel,” he said “But that never happened.”

Oil prices peaked at about $110, because 30-some countries released strategic reserves. And China has quickly learned to live using less fuel, according to Catherine Wolfram, an economics professor at MIT.

“Basically insulated us from much higher run up in oil prices by the reduction in mainly gasoline consumption there from the diffusion of electric vehicles,” Wolfram said.
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News you should know
Let’s do the numbers
  • It was a quiet start to the week on Wall Street. The S&P 500 closed down 0.2%, the Dow fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq fell by less than 0.1%.

  • Shares in Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery fell 2% and 3.76% respectively after a judge paused their merger. A dozen states have sued to block the deal on antitrust grounds.

  • The price of Brent crude oil settled at $89.22 a barrel after breaking $90 during the day. Tanker owners are reportedly offering huge bonuses to anyone willing to cross the Strait of Hormuz as fighting ramps up.

Government
  • Then there’s the trade war. President Donald Trump announced 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods today. When can we start calling this a sales tax on the American consumer?

  • The FDA said one contamination test of Taylor Farms lettuce was a false positive, but says there’s still “overwhelming epidemiological data” linking the food giant to the thousands of cyclosporiasis cases.

  • The Treasury is producing a special semiquincentennial dollar coin with Trump’s face on it. Experts say that’s illegal. 
World Cup
  • Spain won the World Cup Sunday, bringing home the biggest piece of the biggest prize pot ever: $50 million out of $655 million split between all 48 teams. Second place Argentina got $33 million.

  • All the World Cup money earned on American soil, not just winnings but sponsorship deals too, incurs income taxes. It’s even more complicated than usual to sort out how much each player owes the IRS.

  • FIFA reportedly brought in $15 billion from the tournament, Kalshi alone processes $40 billion in bets on the World Cup, but it insists you don’t call it a sports book.


QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I think it's inevitable that we're going to have to respond to the fact that this technology exists. How we respond — that is a choice we get to make.’”
— Linda Hill, professor at Harvard Business School, on artificial intelligence
Hill and her colleagues surveyed thousands of executives about AI rollout at work. They found business leaders were more successful managing the change when they were open and honest about their own AI use, and the way technology could change workplace culture — even when those changes cost jobs.
LISTEN NOW
Japanese office workers wear shorts.
Philip Fong / AFP via Getty Images
Final note
Would you wear shorts to work?
Japan has long encouraged breezy summer office dressing to save on AC, but this year public servants are now allowed to wear shorts. The dress code change is not without controversy, and at least one salaryman told the New York Times (gift link) he shaved his legs before going into the office.
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