Economists keep saying we’re in a “low hire, low fire” labor market. And the longer that description holds true, the more cautious people who have jobs become about looking for new ones.
“If you’re trying to hire somebody, you may be trying to take them from another job,” said Nich Tremper, a senior economist at Gusto.
Convincing someone to leave their comfy, cozy, low-fire position for something new and unknown is especially tough right now.
“And that’s going to increase the premium a little bit,” Tremper said. “They’re taking a risk. And so you’re going to have to up the pay.”
Indeed, pay growth for people who switched jobs rose to 7% last month, according to ADP, the largest year-over-year increase since August 2025. The report doesn’t break down wage increases by industry, but a look at in-demand categories offers clues.
Healthcare and artificial intelligence are doing a lot of poaching, said Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist at The Conference Board.
“Employers are still willing to pay a premium for workers they really want,” Shulyatyeva said.
It’s why she thinks this wage jump for job changers is a bit isolated — reserved for specific roles and industries and less of an across-market trend.
“I would just be very careful to interpret it as if the job market is heating up again,” she said. | 
