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Plus: The partial government shutdown is over. Now the hard part. 
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Hello: The government is back open, but not in time for this week’s jobs reports. Now comes the hard part: Lawmakers want ICE reforms in exchange for funding the Department of Homeland Security beyond next Friday the 13th.

Between then and now, the Winter Olympics will kick off in Milan, and the Seattle Seahawks will face the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX, all on NBC.

I don’t need to tell you that the biggest advertising weekend of the year comes at a, uh, fraught moment for the country — so what’s a brand to do? Expect less “Kendall Jenner giving a cop a Pepsi” this Sunday, and more “ Kendall Jenner gambling on her phone.” Lucky us.

—  Tony Wagner, newsletter editor

A still of Andy Samberg playing the guitar while dressed as the Hellmann's mascot
Courtesy: Hellmann's
This year’s Super Bowl ads will be heavy on stars, light on politics
Big brands pay as much as $10 million to reach millions of viewers for just 30 seconds. Expect them to play it safe, Marketplace’s Kristin Schwab reports.

This year, Super Bowl commercials will be full of famous names: the aforementioned Kendall Jenner for Fanatics Sportsbook, Sabrina Carpenter for Pringles and Andy Samberg for Hellmann’s (see above). There’s a reason for that.

“Taking a side and making a big stand about what you stand for is very, very difficult at this moment,” said Sean McBride, chief creative officer at Arnold, a global ad agency. “We don’t quite know what to do. And so I think it seems like people have settled on, ‘OK, celebrity.’”

Traditionally, advertisers have settled on patriotism. But nothing’s really safe these days.

It’s why Tim Calkins, a marketing professor at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management, said we might see more traditional ads: A bit of a blunt, “Hey, we make this great thing, you should buy it.”

“We will see advertisers by and large stay very close to the product,” Calkins said.

He said more than usual, we’re also seeing brands run commercials early, before the big events.

“If you have a problem in your Super Bowl ad it is much better to learn about it before the game rather than after the game when you just showed it to 100 million people or more,” Calkins said.

About 130 million people last year, actually — a record.

Those viewers are why brands are paying as much as $10 million for 30 seconds or air time this year. 

Ross Benes, a senior analyst at Emarketer, said as viewing habits have become more fragmented, live events have become more important for advertisers.

“Whether you’re watching in California or in New York or wherever you got everyone experiencing the same ad at the same time,” he said.

Which is sort of the opposite of what most advertising is these days: tailored and targeted.


 
News you should know

Let’s do the numbers

  • Most of its stocks rose, but the S&P 500 closed 0.8% lower today. The Dow fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq lost 1.4% thanks to some big losses in Big Tech.

  • Shares in Walmart rose nearly 3% today, pushing the retailer above a $1 trillion market cap. The stock rose 28% in the past year on strong e-commerce business from increasingly wealthy shoppers.

  • Retail construction is the slowest it’s been since 2021 — but not in Texas. What’s the Lone Star state got that others don’t?

  • About 7 in 10 investors say they see President Donald Trump taking stakes in companies as a positive — it often boosts the stock. Still, CEOs are getting strategic to deal with “the ultimate activist investor.”

Earnings season

  • Disney announced Josh D’Amaro as its next CEO after his parks division had a huge earnings call. Sitting CEO Bob Iger has struggled to hire a replacement; the first one didn’t take. Why is succession planning so hard? 

  • PepsiCo said it would cut prices on snacks just in time for the Super Bowl, which will feature an ad for sugar-free sodas. It’s also jumping on the protein bandwagon.

Immigration

  • President Donald Trump signed a $1.2 trillion bipartisan spending package that funds most of the government through September, and buys two weeks to negotiate terms for keeping DHS funded.

  • The Minneapolis economy is suffering after months of aggressive, deadly immigration enforcement. Businesses say they’re being harassed, employees are scared to come in and foot traffic is slow. Economists say some activity will bounce back when ICE leaves, but not all.

  • Haitian immigrants were set to lose temporary protection today, but a judge blocked the move to allow lawsuits to move forward. The move would have hit retirement homes, particularly hard as they staff up to meet growing demand.
An image showing headshots of Marketplace staff involved in this event.

Immigration plays a critical role in the health and stability of the American economy, but the tensions at the intersection of immigration, politics and policy can make these stories harder to tell.
 
Join Marketplace’s chief content officer, Joanne Griffith, in conversation with immigration reporter Elizabeth Trovall and deputy managing editor Jon Gordon about their reporting process and how they go about sourcing for this critical coverage.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
"Companies are using AI as a pretext, an excuse to let people go."
—  Daniel Keum at Columbia Business School

We’ll have to wait on the latest job openings and labor turnover survey. The latest data, covering December, was delayed from today to February 19 because of the partial government shutdown. The January jobs report is delayed, too.

What we do have is private payroll data from ADP, due out this week, and a string of five-figure layoff announcements from companies like Amazon, UPS, Dow Chemical, Tyson and more . Is this the end of the “low-hire, low-fire” job market, Moltbook users logging off and getting to work, or something else? We asked some experts.
HEAR MORE
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A man looks at Super Bowl merchandise at a pop-up shop in San Francisco.
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Final note
Here’s what it costs to miss the ads Sunday

The average price for a Super Bowl ticket at the top of this week was $8,016, according to TickPick, and it cost a hair under $4,300 to get in the building. Beer and parking will probably be a little less, but not by as much as you like. 

Officials are warning of scams both online and in person ahead of the big game. If you think you might have fallen for one, here’s what to do.
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