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It’s Friday, and we’re talking about an estimated $175 billion in refunds waiting for importers who paid tariffs later struck down by the Supreme Court. But President Donald Trump has made it clear he really wants those tariffs back. 
 
Also, federal regulators are proposing some rules for prediction markets, where you can bet on almost anything. Like who will win an Oscar on Sunday, or if nominee Timothée Chalamet will attend the opera. And if you’re thinking about using prediction markets to bet on who is most likely to get those tariff refunds, first read the piece below by my colleague Janet Nguyen. — Carrie Barber, newsletter writer
A $100 bill changes hands
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Who’s most likely to get a tariff refund?
Businesses, not consumers, are the more probable winners. But it could take years to see the money, legal experts say.
When the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s tariffs last month, it left the door open  for an estimated $175 billion in refunds to the U.S. companies that paid the taxes on imported goods.
 
Some companies have pledged to pass on refunds to customers — possibly by lower prices — but consumers who appeal to the Court of International Trade on their own will likely be disappointed, legal experts say.
 
Businesses are more likely to win the suits they file, according to experts, but it may take a long time to see that money given the Trump administration’s resistance to providing refunds. 
 
During his second administration, President Trump has imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on countries around the world. Tariffs are a tax that U.S. companies, not other countries, have to pay. To compensate for that lost revenue, they can either raise prices or eat the costs. American families have each paid an average of more than $1,700 in tariff costs over the past year, according to a February report from the U.S. Senate’s Joint Economic Committee. 
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News you should know
Let’s do the numbers
  • It was another day of losses for the major indexes as the war in Iran drove oil prices higher. The S&P 500 sank 0.6%, while the Dow fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.9%.

  • Oil isn’t the only commodity at risk in the Persian Gulf. The desalination plants that many countries rely on for drinking water are vulnerable to attack.

  • The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace in the fourth quarter than previously reported. The Commerce Department revised its estimate down to 0.7% from 1.4%, the agency said today.
More on tariffs
  • The Trump administration has launched unfair trade practices investigations into dozens of countries, including Canada, Mexico and the United Kingdom. The Trump administration wants to reimpose the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court. 

  • Fish fries are popular this time of year because Christians who observe Lent eat fish on Fridays instead of meat. Expect to pay more this year — and  blame tariffs.


QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I think the opportunity for corruption in prediction markets exists across the board. I just think it's way more pronounced when you're talking about war and military action.”
— Ben Schiffrin, director of securities policy at the nonprofit Better Markets, which advocates for more regulation of financial markets
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket take in billions of dollars in bets each year on all manner of topics, but without the regulations that govern gambling. Recently, prediction market bets involved conflicts in Iran, Ukraine and Venezuela. Last month, Israeli authorities arrested two people accused of using classified military information to profit on Polymarket. U.S. regulators said Thursday they're proposing new rules for prediction markets aimed at preventing manipulation, particularly in sports.  
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Timothée Chalamet stands in front of a gold wall with the word
Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
Final note
Singing his praises?
And the award for best response to a controversial remark goes to the Seattle and Hawai’i opera houses! After Oscar-nominated actor Timothée Chalamet suggested that opera and ballet are irrelevant, the arts venues used the controversy to boost ticket sales. 
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