Paul Weismann, president of Healthy Avocado, imports more than 1 million boxes of avocados a year.
The industry has been a little touch and go lately, he said, even before tariffs. Supplies from Mexico have been down because of bad weather.
“The prices for Super Bowl were twice what they were last year,” which impacted sales, Weismann said. It makes him wonder if people have already reached the price threshold for guacamole. “Will consumers pay $3 or $4 each for an avocado? I don’t think so,” said Weismann. Mexico is the biggest supplier of the fruit. So all he can do is wait to see how tariffs impact prices and how farmers react.
Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, said the cost of tariffs is a big factor for businesses and consumers. But perhaps a bigger consequence for the economy is the uncertainty of trade policy. “That itself has a negative impact on business investment, on business activity,” said York. “If you’re a business trying to plan a long-term investment, you’re going to sit on your hands.”
York said even if a trade war doesn’t emerge — and even if, say, Trump reversed these tariffs — they’ve created friction for companies across borders.
“These are business relationships that have developed over years. We don’t really see them snap back into place overnight,” she said. | 
