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On a summer Saturday, off the coast of San Diego, California, about a half-dozen recreational boats dropped their anchors in a popular swimming area.
Each vessel rotated slightly, drifting a few feet here and there, but remaining generally in stable positions.
“A lot goes into it with wind, current, swell,” said Burt Wilkinson, owner of one of the boats on the water that day. “If you look at every boat out here, they’re all battling the wind.”
Central bankers attempting to keep prices stable face a similar conundrum.
In a recent speech
at the New York Association for Business Economics, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller spoke about the importance of “anchoring” inflation expectations.
“When macroeconomists use the word ‘anchor,’ and when the Fed uses the word ‘anchor,’ what we're talking about is that people's beliefs about inflation might move around a little bit, but they're never going to go that far away from the Fed's 2% inflation target,” said Julie Smith, a professor of economics at Lafayette College. "It's really this belief that inflation is going to return to where it is supposed to be.”
The latest reading
of the personal consumer expenditures price index, excluding food and energy (the inflation measure the Fed watches) was 3.4%. It hasn’t been below 2% in more than five years.
“The actual rate of inflation is important, but even more important is what we expect the inflation rate to be in the future,” said Cara McDaniel, a clinical professor of economics at Arizona State University. “Because our expectations of future prices influence the decisions that we make today.”
If a person believes that prices are going up, they might be more likely to make purchases or ask for a raise now, rather than waiting. That can increase demand and push prices up even faster, forcing central bankers to take aggressive actions on interest rates.
But if people expect inflation to eventually go back down to 2%, that cycle might not be as dramatic.
“That makes the Fed[‘s] job easier,” said John M. Veitch, dean of the School of Business and Management at Notre Dame de Namur University.
That is why central bankers care so much about “anchoring” inflation expectations.
“It doesn't mean that inflation or expected inflation can't move a little bit, " Smith said. “But what it does mean is that inflation is going to return to where it is supposed to be.”
To torture this nautical analogy a little more, the heavy thing at the end of the rope that’s doing the anchoring is the Fed’s credibility. The belief in the Fed’s commitment to eventually getting inflation back down to 2% helps stabilize prices.
“We are anchored by trust,” McDaniel said. |