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Hey there, hope you’ve had a great week. In today’s newsletter, we’ll answer some big questions I bet are on your mind — I know they’re on mine:
  • When will I get my piece of the billions in tariff refunds?
  • Who actually makes money on Polymarket?
  • Are voters more worried about gas prices, or healthcare? 
  • How does foreign business decide where to set up shop in the States?
And maybe one more: Who am I hanging out with this weekend? Read to the end for our interview with a woman to tried out “friendship apps,” and whether they’re worth the subscription fees. — Tony Wagner, newsletter editor
 
PS: Marketplace’s spring fundraiser is going on right now, and we just need a few more donors to hit our goal of 500 new members by tonight, and unlocking an extra $25,000 gift. So don’t wait! Become a Marketplace Investor and snag some new merch too.
A man walks by containers at a shipping yard.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Consumers helped pay for tariffs. Will they get refunds?
Give it about 10 years, maybe. Marketplace’s Kristin Schwab looked at how class action lawsuits might compel companies to pay up.
Anne Robinson hasn’t gotten any tariff money back since applying two weeks ago. The refund will probably take a few months.

“Nothing’s happened,” said Robinson, who owns Scottish Gourmet USA, a specialty grocery in Greensboro, North Carolina. “Still a valid claim, hasn’t been rejected. I checked again this morning.”

While she waits, she’s been thinking about what she’s going to do with the $30,000 refund. Some of it might go to her employees, who haven’t gotten raises in over a year. Some might be used to stock up on inventory. And the rest might go to customers who’ve spent big on tariff-impacted goods.

“Like there was a man who bought 100 boxes of shortbread. That would be a $50 gift certificate, so that’s a significant chunk of change,” Robinson said. People who spent less, maybe paid a couple bucks in price increases, will get a discount code.

Applications are open for businesses to start applying for $166 billion in tariff refunds after the Supreme Court ruled some of the Trump administration’s tariffs illegal. Tariffs are taxes often and ultimately paid by the American consumer. But it’ll be up to business owners to decide what they’re going to do with the refunds. Some are thinking about sharing it with their customers.

“It’s not about lining my pocket as much as it’s about building that relationship with that customer who’s going to be with me for the rest of their life,” Robinson said.

But there’s something else on her mind.

“I’m also scared of plaintiff lawsuits,” she said.
READ MORE


 
Your weekend catch-up
More on tariffs
  • Businesses also paid tariffs to other businesses. In this afternoon’s Daily Wrap newsletter, we’ll look at how those B2B refunds might work. Subscribe here so you don’t miss it.

  • Trade tension and all the “51st state” talk got Canadians to kick American booze. It’s a great example of how politics can dissolve markets, maybe forever.

  • BTW, if you’re having trouble tracking all the tariff threats, announcements and refunds, check out our timeline of all Trump’s moves from “Liberation Day” to the Supreme Court ruling that invalidated it.
Prediction markets
  • After its latest fundraising round, Kalshi is now valued at $22 billion — double what it was in December. Trading volume on the platform has grown 800% in six months.

  • Kalshi and Polymarket draw in users with the idea anyone could win big betting on a topic they feel confident about — politics, celebrities, even the weather. But platform data shows just a tiny fraction of users end up making any money at all.

  • Some of those accounts are tied to political staffers, who told NPR they’re making a tidy profit betting on their own campaigns.
Your money
  • The national average gas price rose 30 cents a gallon in a week, and prices are up 40 cents since we put out this video explaining why they vary around the country. Don’t expect a drop anytime soon.

  • Despite the pain at the pump, Americans say they’re even more worried about health care costs ahead of the midterm elections.

  • The Justice Department is investigating beef prices as ground beef hovers near a record $6.75 a pound. But the hikes might not be nefarious; the American herd is thin, and farmers’ costs are way up. Here’s an illustrated guide to what’s going on.
A man sits in a char at a barber shop.
Barber Sherwood Dolor (James Bennett II/Marketplace)
How rising prices are impacting Black barbershops
Since the pandemic, men are getting their hair cut less often. WGBH’s James Bennett II reports.
The barbershop’s presence in Black American culture is immense — over the years, it’s been the subject of paintings, movies, and even the setting for a talk show. And as a real-life community hub, it’s a vibrant place for men to talk sports, politics, health, and life.

But barbershop culture has been changing over the past few years, and COVID-19 had a lot to do with it.

Evan Harris, a Columbia Business School student, used to pay his barber in Harlem $25 cash before the pandemic. But since 2020, the price he pays for a haircut has risen to about $60, after tip. And amid the rising costs, he had a kind of revelation:

“I used to work in the office all the time,” he said, fresh off a recent cut. “So I would get a haircut religiously, like every one and a half to two weeks. And then the pandemic happened, so people stopped taking care of themselves.”

One of the big reasons the price of a haircut is going up is because barbers are spending more on supplies. Sherwood Dolor has been a barber for 15 years and worked in at least three different Brooklyn neighborhoods. Recently, he’s found himself spending more on supplies — a pack of once-$5 razors is now $10, and a roll of paper neck strips, once 50 cents or $1, now runs about three bucks.

“Cool Care used to be $6.99,” said Dolor. “Now, you go to the store, you probably pay $15 for a can of Cool Care. A pair of clippers runs you anywhere between $150 to 300 bucks.”
READ MORE
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ICYMI: Your picks
Here are the stories readers clicked on the most in our Daily Wrap newsletter this week. Sign up to get the latest news and numbers in your inbox every weekday evening.

  • Signs point to continuing job growth, but it's not all good news (Marketplace)

  • What Happened When Pope Leo XIV Had to Call Customer Service (The New York Times)

  • The bond market shows the economy has changed since the pandemic (Marketplace)

  • How ultra low-cost carriers like Spirit lost customers to the major airlines (Marketplace)

  • Why "net negative migration" could spell bad news for the U.S. economy (Marketplace)
The Southern Idaho booth at SelectUSA
Nancy Marshall Genzer/Marketplace
Can states attract foreign investment during a trade war?
It was a challenging backdrop to this year’s SelectUSA conference, where states vie for attention from businesses. Marketplace’s Nancy Marshall Genzer has the view from the show floor.
The first thing you saw when walking into the vast exhibition hall at this year’s SelectUSA Investment Summit was giant colorful booths from states that paid top dollar for extra space at the front.

Idaho’s smaller booth is about halfway back; there, you could find Jan Rogers, the head of the Southern Idaho Economic Development Organization. Rogers has been to almost every Investment Summit since they started back during the Obama administration.

“I have absolutely seen it all,” she said.

Rogers said that tariffs aren’t nixing any of the deals she’s lined up with foreign investors — so far. That’s the case even for a French company paying high tariffs to import packaging machines into Idaho.

“I don’t know what the pain point has to be, but they continue to move forward no matter what,” she said.

The U.S. is still seen as a stable environment, Rogers said — the place to be. Even countries that are part of the Trump administration’s travel ban are represented here.
READ MORE
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SONG OF THE WEEK
“Friends” by Chick Corea
The cover art for Chick Corea's album
Listen to “Friends” on YouTube | Apple Music | Spotify

Dating apps are struggling, but not because everyone’s paired up. Americans are still lonely, and phones aren’t helping. Now a new class of app is ready to sell you the solution — wouldn’t you know it, right there on the phone.

Timeleft users in 160 cities pay a subscription fee to get matched up with potential pals for dinner or drinks. Bumble has its own platonic spinoff called Bumble BFF, and the app 222 actually sprung up from academic research on how people connect. 

Amarah Hasham-Steele tested out a few of these services for the Canadian magazine The Walrus, and she came on “Marketplace” this week to talk about her experience paying upwards of $20 a month to be matched with dinner dates. She told Kai Ryssdal she came away less cynical about friendship apps, but unconvinced by the friendly ghost in the machine. 

“With Timeleft or 222 you get to buy into the illusion of ‘Oh this is happening naturally’ but in fact it’s this technological process working behind the scenes.” 
I’m just looking for someone to chill and listen to some jazz piano. If you’re interested, hit me up.
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